Warriors Eye Second Place in the Pacific But Stephen Curry Is the Real X-Factor

Why the Warriors Are Suddenly a Second-Place Pick After a 37-45 Season

A team that finished 37-45 and missed the play-in entirely doesn't usually get penciled in for a top-two divisional finish the following year. Yet several 2026-27 projections have Golden State landing in the Pacific's upper half, ahead of the Suns and Kings, even if not everyone agrees it happens by right.

The range of outlooks tells the real story. TeamRankings still slots the Warriors at 37-45 and fourth in the division, while a separate impact-based model has them at 45-37, good for seventh in the West. Another preseason breakdown goes further, projecting Golden State at 46-36 and third in the Pacific. That spread — from repeat mediocrity to a nine-game jump — isn't noise. It reflects genuine disagreement about how much of last season's collapse was roster quality versus circumstance.

Division math matters here too. Last season's Pacific finish had the Lakers at 53-29 running away with it, followed by the Suns (45-37) and Clippers (42-40), with Golden State and a rebuilding Kings (22-60) trailing behind. A second-place projection doesn't require the Warriors to catch the Lakers — it requires passing two teams that are either aging (Suns) or reshaping their roster (Clippers), while the Kings stay in last.

What Actually Got Better on This Roster

Golden State's offseason wasn't headlined by a marquee trade or a max free-agent signing. Instead, the front office reinforced the edges of a core built around Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, and Kristaps Porzingis, adding rookie Yaxel Lendeborg plus wing depth in Will Richard, Lajae Jones, Malevy Leons, and Nate Williams, while re-signing De'Anthony Melton, Al Horford, Charles Bassey, and Gui Santos.

The clearest upgrade is at guard and wing. Melton, Gary Payton II, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Richard, and Santos give Steve Kerr a genuinely deep rotation to surround Curry and Butler, which matters for a team that struggled to stay competitive whenever its stars sat.

• Backcourt/wing depth: Melton, Payton II, Podziemski, Moody, Richard, Santos — multiple interchangeable options
• Frontcourt: Porzingis, Horford, Bassey, Quinten Post — size on paper, but health-dependent
• Rookie addition: Yaxel Lendeborg as a developmental piece rather than a Day 1 rotation lock

The bigger question mark sits up front. Horford turns 40 during the season and Porzingis carries a long injury history, meaning the frontcourt's improved depth on the roster sheet may not translate into improved availability on the floor. Golden State added more insurance than star power this summer — a sensible approach, but one that only pays off if the insurance is actually needed less often than last year.

The Number That Explains Everything: 24-19 vs. 13-26

Here's the split that matters more than any offseason addition: Golden State went 24-19 with Stephen Curry on the floor last season and 13-26 without him. Curry appeared in just 43 of 82 games, still averaging 26.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.7 assists.

Run the pace math and the gap becomes stark. A 24-19 record projects to roughly 46 wins over a full 82-game season. The 13-26 stretch projects to about 27 wins over the same span. That's essentially the difference between a solid Pacific contender and a lottery team, and it happened with the exact same core roster — no trade, no coaching change, just Curry's presence or absence.

This is why every conversation about Golden State's 2026-27 ceiling has to start with availability, not talent evaluation. The Warriors already know what a Curry-led version of this roster looks like, and it's good. They also know what the alternative looks like, and it isn't.

Can a Healthier Curry Alone Push Golden State Past 37 Wins?

If Curry simply plays his career-average share of games — closer to 60-65 than 43 — the pace-adjusted math suggests Golden State clears 37 wins comfortably, likely landing in the mid-to-high 40s. That aligns with the more optimistic projections floating around, including the 46-36 forecast that puts the Warriors third in the Pacific.

But there's a distinction worth making: Curry's health fixes the volume problem — more games where the team performs like a 46-win roster instead of a 27-win one. It doesn't automatically fix everything else. Draymond Green and Butler are both past 35, Porzingis has his own injury history, and the frontcourt depth behind him remains unproven in high-minute stretches. A healthier Curry raises the floor and the ceiling, but it doesn't guarantee the supporting cast holds up around him for 65-plus games.

In other words, Curry availability is the single biggest lever the Warriors have — but it's a lever attached to a roster with its own separate durability questions.

Where This Projection Could Fall Apart

The optimistic case rests on three things breaking in Golden State's favor: Curry staying on the floor, the new depth actually holding up, and the Pacific's other contenders not pulling away. Any one of those failing changes the picture.

The Lakers already sit well clear of the pack, and both the Suns and Clippers finished ahead of Golden State last season with rosters that haven't collapsed. Golden State's path to second place likely runs through beating out the Suns specifically, and the Warriors will get four regular-season chances to do that directly, along with four games each against the Lakers, Clippers, and Kings.

The other risk is internal. If Curry's 43-game workload last season wasn't an outlier but an early sign of age-related wear — he's now in his late 30s — the 24-19 pace becomes harder to sustain even in the games he does play. And if Horford, Porzingis, or Draymond miss extended stretches at the same time Curry does, Golden State's new depth gets tested in exactly the scenario it was built to survive, without the safety net of a fully healthy core.

What Golden State Needs to Actually Prove

Talk about roster upgrades will fade quickly once the season starts. What decides whether Golden State actually finishes second in the Pacific comes down to a short list of trackable signals.

• Curry's games played — anything meaningfully above 43 changes the season's trajectory
• The team's record without Curry — even modest improvement on 13-26 would be a real sign the new depth is working
• Head-to-head results against the Suns and Clippers specifically, since those are the teams standing between Golden State and second place
• Frontcourt availability for Porzingis and Horford, given the age and injury risk behind Golden State's size

Golden State has the roster to justify the projection on paper. Whether it translates into a real Pacific finish depends far less on what the front office added this summer and far more on how many nights Stephen Curry is actually in uniform to use it.