Warriors Projected 9th, Kings Dead Last: Why the 16-Win Gap Isn't the Full Story

Why Are the Warriors Projected for Just 35 Wins and a 9th-Place Finish?

ESPN's preseason model has the Golden State Warriors finishing 35-47, good for 9th in the Western Conference — a fourth straight season stuck in the play-in tournament rather than a guaranteed playoff seed. One version of the forecast even has that 35-win mark edging Golden State ahead of a Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers team, which tells you how tight the middle of the West is projected to be.

The logic behind the number isn't complicated: Golden State's ceiling still runs through Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler, and there simply isn't enough proven depth behind them to absorb a rough stretch. When a roster's outcome swings on three or four players staying on the floor, a 35-win median outcome starts to make sense it's a distribution of possible seasons, not a guarantee of decline.

It's also worth noting that not every model agrees. Team Rankings projects a much rosier 47-35 finish, while Bleacher Report lands closer to ESPN at 34-48. That spread between projections is itself a signal this isn't a team analysts view as fixed in place, it's one where the range of outcomes is unusually wide.

What's the Real Injury Risk for Golden State — and What Doesn't Add Up?

Before going further, one thing needs correcting: LeBron James has never been on the Warriors roster, and any framing that treats his absence as a factor in Golden State's outlook is simply wrong. It's an easy mix-up given how often James dominates NBA headlines, but it has no bearing on the Warriors' actual situation and shouldn't be used to explain their projected record.

The real injury picture is narrower but still meaningful. Jimmy Butler is expected to be out until at least December 1 with a knee injury — a significant chunk of the early schedule for a player Golden State needs as a secondary shot-creator and closer. One offseason roster preview also flags Moses Moody as rehabbing a knee issue, which would further thin an already shallow wing rotation.

Complicating the picture, Basketball-Reference's most recent official note says the Warriors had "no current injuries to report" — a snapshot that predates the later offseason updates on Butler and Moody. That gap between an outdated "clean" injury report and the more current previews is a reminder to treat early-season health notes as moving targets, not settled facts. Add in Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton II still listed as free agents on the team's own roster page, and Golden State's projected depth looks thinner than the 35-win number alone suggests.

Put together, the Warriors' play-in projection isn't really about talent ceiling — it's about how much downside exists if Butler's injury lingers, if Moody's knee sets him back further, or if free-agency questions around Kuminga and Payton go unresolved into the season.

Why Are the Kings Forecast to Finish Dead Last at 19-63?

The Sacramento Kings' projected 19-63 finish — last in the West — reflects a franchise that has openly pivoted away from win-now moves. Waiving DeMar DeRozan wasn't just a roster subtraction; it removed the one player on the roster who could reliably get a bucket in the final minutes of a close game. That kind of shot-creation and closing ability doesn't disappear quietly from a box score, and it shows up in projected win totals.

Other models back up the pessimism, if not the exact number. Bleacher Report and TeamRankings both land on 20-62, essentially matching ESPN's read. SI is the outlier at a comparatively rosy 26-56 — still last-place territory, but a meaningful gap from 19 wins. That range suggests the direction of the Kings' season (bottom of the conference) is far more agreed-upon than the exact depth of the fall.

Sacramento's front office appears to have made peace with that trade-off. Rather than chase another stopgap veteran, the team has leaned into adding rookies and expanding roles for younger players already in the building — a clear signal that 2026-27 is being treated as a developmental year, not a playoff push.

Could Sacramento's Young Core Outperform a 19-Win Forecast?

A 19-win season is a floor projection, not a ceiling, and the Kings have real building blocks that could push the total higher. Keegan Murray remains the clearest veteran anchor of the young group, with his prime still years away meaning any growth from him this season is pure upside relative to the forecast. Keon Ellis gives the roster a steady two-way piece already, while Nique Clifford and Maxime Raynaud are viewed as players who won't peak for a few more seasons but could still take real developmental jumps in year one.

Rookies Dylan Cardwell and Darius Acuff Jr. add further variance. Young, unproven rotation pieces are unpredictable by nature — some regress as expected against NBA-level competition, others outplay their draft slot immediately. If two or three of Sacramento's young pieces develop faster than projected, the gap between a 19-win outcome and something closer to SI's 26-win estimate could close quickly.

The larger point is that Sacramento's rebuild is explicitly described as a multi-year process. That framing matters: a team building for three years from now isn't optimizing for win totals in year one, which means the 19-63 number may undersell talent that simply hasn't been given the reps yet to show up in the standings.

What Could Flip These Predictions Before the Season Ends?

The 16-win gap between Golden State's projected 35 and Sacramento's projected 19 looks decisive on paper, but it's worth asking what that number is actually measuring. The Warriors' outcome hinges almost entirely on health if Jimmy Butler returns on schedule, Moses Moody's knee cooperates, and the front office resolves the Kuminga/Payton situations, a jump from 9th toward a top-six seed is well within reach given the model variance already seen between ESPN, Team Rankings, and Bleacher Report.

For Sacramento, the swing factor is less about health and more about discovery. If one of Murray, Ellis, Clifford, Raynaud, Cardwell, or Acuff emerges as a legitimate closing option someone who can approximate even a fraction of what DeRozan provided late in games the Kings' win total could climb well past 19 without any external roster additions.

That's really what the 16-win gap represents: not a difference in raw talent ceiling, but a difference in how much each team's season depends on stability versus discovery. Golden State needs its known stars to stay on the floor; Sacramento needs an unknown to become known. Both are plausible. Neither is guaranteed.

Keep an eye on the first six weeks of the season Butler's recovery timeline and whichever young King starts closing games will tell you more about the real Western Conference standings than either preseason number does right now.